Howard Dean is first.

Happy New Year Phil and to the rest of you too.  I'm planning a relaxing day at home while even more snow falls and falls.  Later I'll watch the Rose Bowl Game.  GO ILLINI!!

John quoted Andrew Shmookler who wrote, among other things, that:

"What we do not need, in the face of such forces, is a Democratic leader who will recapitulate the strategies of capitulation that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have enacted so cravenly this year.

" . . . .

"Of the three candidates who seem to have a reasonable shot at the nomination, only Edwards has spoken like the fighter we need. As I mentioned in a commentary to an earlier piece, I am still wondering what it says about his judgment and his capacities as a warrior that Edwards refused in the general election campaign of 2004 to be even as tough as too-wimpy John Kerry wanted him to be, and to tackle Darth Cheney head-on in those debates. But the John Edwards we see in the campaign these days, and who made his fortune as a courtroom warrior, might conceivably have the guts and the skills to tackle the dark Bushite forces in the coming general election campaign and thereafter from the Oval Office."

Thanks for providing this delerious, comical coda to the primary preseason.  A "Democratic leader who will recapitulate the strategies of capitulation" enacted by Democrats?  A commentator would have to consider his audience morons to think their memories are this dramatically impaired.  The problems wrestled with in Congress this past year stemmed from the foolish votes of past lawmakers like Edwards who simply fled Capitol Hill to run for higher office after the damage was done.

"Edwards refused in the general election campaign of 2004 to be even as tough" as Kerry?  He was the one urging Kerry not to renege on his commitment to the Iraq invasion when Kerry was, as usual, wavering.  Not Edwards.  He's the "fighter" who hadn't yet picked the optimal moment to contritely wash his hands of the wreckage left in the wake of his horrible decision to support the President.

Conceivably, Edwards has "the guts and skills to tackle the dark Bushite forces." If he does, it will basically render his voting record in the Senate a practical joke on the poor people who suffered from his representation.  Who knows whether his conduct will mirror his rhetoric or his record?  Maybe it's worth rolling the dice.  For that matter, I think I'll go buy a lottery ticket today.  I'ts true I've lost before, but you never know.  It's entirely possible that history is no guide at all.

Emmetsburg, Ia. - John Edwards gave a long, passionate response Monday to rivals' claims that if he becomes the Democrats' presidential nominee, he would be financially handcuffed because he agreed to federal campaign spending limits that will last throughout the primaries.

The former North Carolina senator said other campaigns are raising the issue because, even though they are much better financed, they haven't been able to pull significantly ahead of him in Iowa.


"It scares them to death, because what they know is, what this candidate and this campaign stands for is working," he said. "Can I ask you a question? If they have more money, and money's what matters, then why are they worrying about me?"

His words came in response to a question from a voter here who said he and his daughter heard the allegation at a campaign event for Democratic rival Barack Obama.

The man, John Ryan of Pocahontas, an Edwards supporter, said Obama's wife, Michelle, asked his 17-year-old daughter whom she was supporting in the caucuses. Ryan said his daughter, Bonnie, told her that she was backing Edwards. He said Michelle Obama then told his daughter that she shouldn't support Edwards because he had accepted campaign spending limits that are attached to federal campaign matching money. Bonnie Ryan, who was sitting next to her father, confirmed her father's account.

Edwards has agreed to limit his primary campaign spending to $54 million in return for federal matching money. Obama and Hillary Clinton did not accept the matching money, so they are not bound by the limits.

Edwards voice rose as he spoke about Ryan's account of the encounter with Michelle Obama. "When you're resorting to arguments about how much money somebody has, you're in a bad place," he said. "Because you're not saying, 'He's wrong on this issue, or he's wrong on that issue. And he's not a good candidate.' They're not saying any of that. They're saying, 'But we have more money.' "

Obama aides have been telling reporters that Edwards' decision to accept spending caps would cripple him if he became the nominee.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pb...

3-4-5...a hat trick for Edwards...lol

Edwards Comes Out on Top on the Economy
By Dean Baker
t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Monday 31 December 2007

The three leading Democratic presidential candidates have taken remarkably similar positions on major economic issues. There are few major differences in their public stances on taxes, health care, and trade. Insofar as it is possible to identify differences between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama, it is primarily due to judgments about their level of commitment and the powers to whom they will answer.

On taxes, all three candidates have said they want the wealthy to pay a larger portion of the bill, which starts with taking back the Bush tax cuts on families earning more than $200,000 a year. All three have proposed eliminating various loopholes that primarily benefit the wealthy. John Edwards has gone the furthest in this respect, calling for raising the capital gains tax rate back to the pre-Clinton level of 28 percent. This tax increase almost exclusively affects the wealthy. Most of the capital gains earned by middle class families are either from selling their home, which is generally not taxed, or in retirement accounts that are subject to normal income tax rates.

All three contenders have proposed a national health care system that is a variant of the plan developed by Yale political scientist Jacob Hacker. The basics of the plan are to require that all firms either insure their workers directly or pay a fee to the government. The government then uses this money to heavily subsidize insurance for low - and moderate-income families. It also establishes an expanded Medicare-type public plan that people will have the option to buy into. In addition, it reforms the private insurance market, most importantly by requiring that insurers not discriminate based on pre-existing conditions.

Both Clinton and Edwards would impose a mandate that everyone buy into this system. Obama has claimed that he would not require a mandate. As a practical matter, the health care system that any of them are able to put in place will depend on the arms they twist and the pressure they can bring to bear against the insurance companies, the pharmaceutical industry and other powerful actors who will be hurt by real reform.

Any serious plan will require a mandate - this directly follows from its requirement that insurers take all comers. Without a mandate, no one would buy insurance until they had serious bills. This would be like letting people buy car insurance after an accident, and then sending the company the bill. That doesn't work.

All three contenders have said that they want to break with the Bush-Clinton-Bush trade agenda. Since recent trade deals like NAFTA and CAFTA are hugely unpopular, especially among Democrats, this position is not surprising. What their position means in practice remains to be seen. For example, in spite of her newfound opposition to these trade deals, Senator Clinton found the time to vote for the recent Peru trade pact, which is largely in the NAFTA/CAFTA mode.

As a practical matter, the country has already gone about as far as it can in placing its manufacturing workers in competition with low-wage workers in the developing world. The impact of any future trade deals on the US economy will be almost imperceptible. A decline of the dollar by an additional 10 percent against the currencies of our trading partners would swamp the impact of all currently pending trade deals.

On this issue there could be substantial differences among the candidates. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is likely to be the guiding light for economic policy in a Clinton or Obama administration. Rubin was the architect of the high dollar policy of the 90s that led to the massive trade deficits of recent years. He remains an enthusiastic supporter of a high dollar. Therefore Clinton or Obama would be more likely than Edwards to sacrifice the jobs and wages of manufacturing workers in order to prop up the dollar.

Rubin's Wall Street agenda would also apply to other areas of economic policy, most importantly the budget. Rubin places balanced budgets and even budget surpluses at the center of his economic vision. A push to a balanced budget will seriously curtail the ability to extend health care coverage, promote access to child care, promote clean technologies and address other neglected priorities. By contrast, Edwards has clearly stated that he does not view a balanced budget as a priority, arguing instead for deficit targets that prevent the debt from growing relative to the size of the economy. The willingness to accept deficits may prove especially important in the context of an economy that could be in recession when the next president takes office.

In short, Edwards has set himself apart from the other two top candidates by indicating a clear willingness to challenge an agenda set on Wall Street. If a President Edwards actually carried through with this course, he would pursue a very different economic agenda than his two leading rivals.

Linda quoted Tony Leys who wrote "Edwards has agreed to limit his primary campaign spending to $54 million in return for federal matching money. Obama and Hillary Clinton did not accept the matching money, so they are not bound by the limits."

You probably recall that Gov. Dean opted not to accept federal matching funds in 2004.  Neither did Kerry, fortunately for Edwards since, as Kerry's eventual running mate, he became the direct beneficiary of Kerry's decision. The reason for refusing it was the same as the Clinton and Obama's reason.

Obviously, Dean was a pioneer in fundraising and wanted to take full advantage of this aspect of his campaign.  If you feel Ms. Obama's comments are inaccurate, is it your opinion that Dean was wrong to suggest his greater resources and spending ability would make him a more formidable candidate than his rivals after the primaries ended?

The last Des Moines Register poll before Iowans caucus Thursday shows Barack Obama pulling ahead in the Democratic contest and Mike Huckabee maintaining a solid lead over Mitt Romney.

Good morning and Happy New Year again Bloggie! I lived in CA many years and expect the Rose Parade to be going when I arise. Here in FL it doesn't start till 11 which is kinda nice - you can get through your morning routine, then sit back, veg, and pork out on left overs from NY's eve. I don't watch the game, but the floats are spectacular - every year I say 'next year I am going' and every year something else comes up.

Here's a nice diary on KOS this morning - guy says he likes both Obama and Edwards and will support either, but sees Obama as a 'non-fire-breather' who quietly gets things done. If only we could say the same about Pelosi and Reid.

quote
See, Barack Obama never has been and never will be a fire-breathing partisan. He just won't. When he was in the Illinois Senate, he was a guy who got things done. Good things, too, sometimes overcoming overwhelming odds in a Republican-dominated legislature. That is how he passed bills on the videotaping of murder confessions, campaign finance reform, children's healthcare, equal rights for gays and lesbians and any number of other liberal issues which Republicans were unlikely to support.
unquote

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1...

Everyone have a restful day.

Reed quoted Dean Baker who wrote "In short, Edwards has set himself apart from the other two top candidates by indicating a clear willingness to challenge an agenda set on Wall Street."

This reflects Edwards' modus operandi.  First, earn a substantial figure as an advisor for a Wall Street concern, then fashion your policy to address the problems you benefitted from when there were no such regulations in place. 

You see?  First vote for the invasion, then rail about the inability of your successors to rectify the problem, proposing your own preferable solutions once you have surrendered any authority to actually act on them.

Right to Work laws only gaurantee you the right to work for less.

Happy Jihad New Year

A bomb in a Thailand tourist area has wounded 27 people, as the jihadis ring in the new year in traditional fashion.

SYDNEY, Australia - A bomb attack wounded 27 people Monday in a Thai tourist town where people had gathered to celebrate the New Year, officials said.

Muslim insurgents were suspected in the attack in Sungai Kolok on the border with Malaysia, where two blasts went off inside a hotel discotheque and one in the basket of a motorcycle outside a hotel, army spokesman Col. Akara Thiprote said.

"The Closer":

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/31/eveningnews/main3660195.shtml

DENISON, Iowa, Dec. 31, 2007

• Videos
• Photos

Michelle Obama (AP)

Although she claims to be a reluctant campaigner, Michelle Obama is being referred to as "The Closer" because of her ability to secure votes for her husband's campaign. Dean Reynolds reports. | Share

• 
  Michelle Obama: 'The Closer' (2:03)

(CBS) For a supposedly reluctant campaigner, Michelle Obama is a natural. In big stadiums or small rooms, she has set aside any qualms she may have had and jumped into the fray with an appeal that is heavy on education, on health care, on the family, on her husband and on her own audacity of hope.

"As a black girl from the South Side of Chicago, I am not supposed to be here," she tells one group.

"We need some change in this country, don't we?" she tells another crowd.

Mrs. Obama can talk issues -- and couples that with some world-class hugging skills. The reception for a woman who may become the nation's first Black first lady has been so positive, for the most part, that it's made her self-conscious, reports CBS News Correspondent Dean Reynolds.

"Barack is the candidate, I'm just hanging out," she says.

Well, she's not just "hanging out." Michelle Obama is a vital component of her husband's campaign. For starters, as a woman she can appeal to the foundation of Hillary Clinton's support.

But she is also working on African-Americans who are standing on the sidelines because they doubt Obama can win -- afraid of being disappointed and waiting to see how largely white Iowa and New Hampshire respond.

"I understand it. I do. I know where it comes from, this sense of doubt and fear about what the future holds," she says.

...

http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_7855509

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/1/8554/92924 

Oh, dear, the blog is jumping again.   Charles was here ahead of me.

6.  Actually, the blog was a pioneer in fundraising and the reason we opted out of the federal funds was because we felt that the Dean campaign was bringing a lot of new people into the process via their small donations and contributions to the "bats."  Dean did virtually nothing.  Trippi agreed to the suggestions of someone who walked into his office with an idea for the internet.

In the early spring of 2003, Dean didn't even have a web site other than the Vermont Governor one. 

Good luck in Michigan...Vermont is an "at will" state...meaning employers can treat you like sh!t and fire you at will or you can quit at will and not be held responsible for any loss to the company because of it...the law sucks! My wife's last employer abuses it to the max.

Starting to snow...here we go again.

Monica wrote "Dean did virtually nothing."

What are you talking about? The idea to opt out was his.  He allowed supporters to decide whether it was a good one or not, and they did.

HAPPY NEW YEAR FOLKS!

This just in:

POLL: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co

The much anticipated final poll from the Des Moines Register and Selzer & Company is out. They conducted interviews from December 27-30 with 800 likely Democratic caucus goers and 800 likely Republican caucus goers (those who say they "definitely or probably will attend" the caucuses). The Register has full coverage of the Democratic results, the Republican results, leading issues, an overview from columnist David Yepsen and a description of their methods.

The Register's lead for the Democrats:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses [...] Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

more from Mark Blumenthal (The Pollster)

The two polls stories, plus Yepsen's column, are well worth the click. Unlike the last two releases, the stories include tables of results by demographic groups.

A few quick observations. What "will raise some eyebrows among party pros," as Yepsen puts it, is the fact that a "whopping" 60% of the Democratic caucus goers say this will be their first caucus and only 54% say they are Democrats (40% identify as independents and 5% as Republicans). Compare these results to what other polls have shown earlier in 2007 and it becomes clear that this Register sample predicts a very different set of caucus participants than in years past.

Yepsen also notes that if pollster Ann Selzer had weighted the new results by party identification "to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent."

However, one of the most critical challenges in polling the Iowa Caucuses is that no one knows for certain who will turn out this week. When different surveys produce results that vary beyond the margin of sampling error, their differing conceptions of the likely caucus goers explain most of the variation.

So is the Register/Selzer poll right or wrong about a the potential for "a dramatic influx of first-time caucus goers" and independents on the Democratic side? I know our comments section, and the political blogosphere, will be alive with speculation, but we really will not know for certain until Thursday night.

Update: The Edwards campaign issues a critical analysis of the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll.

Update II: Another critical assessment from the Clinton campaign.

Update III: New polls were also released late yesterday by InsiderAdvantage (showing Clinton and Edwards leading Obama) and early this morning by CNN/ORC (showing Clinton with more support than Obama but within the margin of sampling error). We will have full poll updates later this morning.

Update IV: Overlooked this earlier this morning - Marc Ambinder notes: "Obama's internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus" (via Kaus).

-- Mark Blumenthal

Have a wonderful first day of the new year, all.

Ciao for now. 

Here's an observation with respect to pre-caucus poll results:

"[W]e had a good organization in Wisconsin.  The people there had raised $1.5 million for us in small donations, and I'd promised them I was going to make my last stand in their state.  I didn't want to quit.  We were so close.  We'd been leading in the polls until one week before the Iowa caucuses!" -- Howard Dean with Judith Warner; You Have the Power (p. 26).

16.  Having an idea is not "doing something."  Besides, every candidate faces that question.  What the blog did was make a commitment to raise the money that was going to be needed--a commitment that could be taken seriously because we'd already raised tons.

Which Trippi then wasted.  Don't get me started. 

I have not mentioned polls because I really got tired of myself repeating in 2003 that the only poll that counts is they one on election day--a caution that nobody wanted to hear, but turned out to be accurate.  As how could it not?  That's how it works.

Monica "Having an idea is not 'doing something.'

Sorry I suggested it.
 

Please consider the implications of Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Gravel being excluded from the last NH debate

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/1/8554/92924 

Monica wrote "I have not mentioned polls because I really got tired of myself repeating in 2003 that the only poll that counts is they one on election day--a caution that nobody wanted to hear, but turned out to be accurate."

Thanks for the reminder.  cC was here one day ago to list one poll result after another, with helpful accompanying commentary, each showing Edwards in the lead or in a strong position and gaining on the field.

Today she's here with more poll results, followed by reams of critic's remarks to help undermine the value of the results.  I hope others appreciate the entertainment value of these contributions as much as I do.  I also enjoyed watching the Hathaways on TV as a boy, but the blog is formidable competition.

Monica wrote "Please consider the implications of Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Gravel being excluded from the last NH debate."

I have.  I still don't think I'll watch it.

I have not mentioned polls because I really got tired of myself repeating in 2003 that the only poll that counts is they one on election day--a caution that nobody wanted to hear, but turned out to be accurate.  As how could it not?  That's how it works.  

How very true this statement is. I visited with Rahm Emmanuals chief of staff on Sunday evening and inquired as to who would come out on top in Iowa. She was as clueless as I. The end result of the conversation was that the voter will make the final and  accurate poll.

Spot-on, Monica.

The Echo Chamber of Denial is baaaaaaaaack. 

All of this obsessive-compulsive teeth-gnashing, re: IA caucus's "polls" is utter bullshit.

Polls (and so-called "hard #1 counts") mean zilch. 

Money raised isn't an issue, as excessive media saturation alienates (see "Perfect Storm" crap fmi). 

The only thing which matters is who ultimately shows up (most likely-middle-aged experienced caucus folks--they're already invested into the system/know how it works); and how many (the results of which, won't be a known attribute until the caucuses are convened/final votes tallied).

Get a life, folks (if residing outside of IA or NH). The situation is totally out of your control (e.g., you do not "have the power").

.

There just polls, Tom.  If you don't find them of interest....scroll on. 

I hope you're not deluding yourself into believing that your daily/hourly bloviation on this blog is particularly insightful or prescient, sheez. 

Myself, I watch the polls 10-15 days prior to the race. I enjoy it:)

There s/b they/re

well, actually there s/b they're.

Sheesh! 

MONICA.....

THIS IS a Beauty Pageant! And the Corporate Sponsors are deciding who gets cut and who makes it to the next round.

Welcome to Reality TV!

I hope everyone loads them down with emails and calls.

Charles in Montana
Tue, 01/01/08

Actualy all the trend lines moved against Dean the last 3 days.  The key to these polls is to look at the trend lines.   

Happy New Year folks!!!
------
Jo in Vermont from previous thread (#98) - Howard's cousin in the Mayor of Salt Lake City County - his name is Peter Corroon. However, Rocky Anderson, the fighting mayor of SLC, was one of Howard's earliest and most ardent supporters. And he's done one heck of a job turning SLC green.

http://abc.go.com/site/contactus.html?li...

There is a bit of psychology involved with these polls. This latest DMR poll showing Obama in the lead can help herd some sheeple into Obama's camp; This is why the other campaigns are upset. The DMR has been the closest poll to the actual results in the past two caucus cycles. You know how some voters are - they want to be with a winner so to speak. I remember the WA state caucuses -- The Kerry supporters couldn't say anything about their candidate other than he was *electable* and Howard wasn't.

I'll clarify.

Past caucus attendees are what should be looked at.  They're dedicated to politics year 'round (indies, newly registered,  young voters,  and first-timers aren't invested).

Factor in that caucuses are a royal PITA (and yes, the weather matters in regards to turnout, if it's extreme).

It's a crapshoot.  "Polls" (and snow shovels/stocking caps/ad buys) be damned.  Too funny....

It was 30 below zero during our '04 caucus--wholly different dichotomy happening in '08. 

WI's primary wasn't the least bit winnable, BTW. It was already over for Howard (groupthink is indeed dangerous).

mainefem - It is rather frustrating how such a tiny slice of our population is essentially choosing our nominee.

PEACE ACTIVISTS OCCUPY HUCKABEE’S IOWA CAMPAIGN OFFICE

"Get a life, folks (if residing outside of IA or NH). The situation is totally out of your control (e.g., you do not "have the power")."

If that was for me I can only respond the that posting commentary from what I  believe to be the best polling information on the internet is perfectly reasonable.  No power sought....

Sheesh, what is your point...this is OUR (Iowans and Mainers) 20 seconds of fame and don't anyone else dare to watch or comment?

 YOU get a life.

As long as there are elections there will be polling.  Some of us watch them.  Deal with it.

37. mainefem - The diehard caucus goers would seem to be supporting Clinton and Edwards.

cC - I watch the polls too - especially the last two weeks. Cant' help myself! ;-) As a non-Iowan or New Hampshirite that's all I can do...

Mornin' mary vb.  Exactly....all we CAN do, lol. 

I like Mark Blumenthal because he does a meta-analysis of many polls and has the requisite background, etc.

I'm kind of surprised to be pounced on for it??

Tom, seemed to be implying that I'm only posting polls because they (yesterday) indicated and Edwards "surge".....maybe, maybe not.  From what I can see it's a very close race in Iowa--impossible to call it.....Still, I watch the polls. 

mary vb -

So I'm dying to know --

-- what did you think of the movie Hot Fuzz ?

I think Phil has an excellent gage of what's actually going on in Iowa too. I'm anxious to read what he has to say.

Everybody enjoy their day off.

----
rdorgan - Hot Fuzz was hilarious!!

rdorgan - On the same wavelength. See my response before you even asked...

I too enjoy reading Phil's commentary on the Iowa caucuses.  Great to have an inside "ear" posting here.

16.

Tom Bearse
Tue, 01/01/08


The idea was Trippi's. He talked us all into supporting it on a conference call. He made a bunch in the process. It was a bad idea. Trippi spent all the money in Iowa. Doing so put even more green in his pocket. He got greedy and he got canned.

http://bluehampshire.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=FC303235EF4AF2C7969574505D5A38E4?diaryId=3011

mary vb -

Yes Brit humor, as evidenced in Hot Fuzz is, as they say, "spot on" !

If you get to see another movie, try Great Debaters (just released, Oprah-produced, Denzel Washington-directed/acted).

Saw it last weekend and the matinee was full to capacity.  Best line in the movie, my wife and I agreed, is:

"if not now, when ?"

Everyone in the audience cheered to that.

29.

*** cChalfonte***
Tue, 01/01/08

...Myself, I watch the polls 10-15 days prior to the race. I enjoy it:)


---


10-15 days before is when they might actually have some relevance. ;)

It appears as such now, but anything could happen immediately leading up to the caucus (not the time for slips of the tongue from any candidate).

The DNC national rules & bylaws committee "has the power".

Too late now to bitch about something which you can't change, folks.  Take up the issue w/those in the upper ranks of your state parties, if you want change in your state>national committee.

Unless you reside in IA, there isn't a damned thing any of you can do about it.

Accepting is different than likin' it. 

Bitch @Bill Gardner in NH; and see if he's willing to trash NH's Constitution & statutes.  Nada.  Not gonna happen. 

It's up to registered Dems. in IA (esp. those who've caucused in the past--regularly); and how strong their municipal and county operations are. 

That's a fact--sorry if reality bites, folks.

Those who actually attend the IA caucuses "have the power," and it'll happen on the 2nd vote (behind closed doors--unless a few C-Span cameras are allowed into select locations). 

I hate caucuses w/a passion.  If Billary gets close to becoming legitimately "viable" before the 10th of Feb., I'll re-enroll; and vote absentee ballot.

Phil already indicated that IA doesn't allow absentee balloting for caucuses (sad, as that depresses turnout).

College students are still on break--I'm not reading anything about that factoid for either NH or IA.

Unintended consequence for moving up the dates.  Oopsie.

However our last primary was in 2000 (turnout was significantly  higher); and the state is too damned cheap to appropriate the funding.

Our turnouts will be outrageously low--crappy candidates on both sides are confronted w/turned-off base activists.  The state Dem. party will do well to obtain enough volunteer conveners.  Bitterness from '04 remains.  Denying it won't help.

All of the "polls" and pundits in the world won't change anything. 

Snow's fallin' an' got Badger football on the boob-tube.

07. Arlo Guthrie - City of New Orleans

@

http://www.moteldemoka.com/

___________

Was watchin'  Court TV/truT's BEACH PATROL-Sandiego

and thought I saw mprov!  He was not involved in an altercation, but ...well, I would like to know. 

12:23

just wanted to pop in for a stretch and wish y'all a happy and prosperous New Year.  Alright, back to to sofa. 

" 10-15 days before is when they might actually have some relevance. ;)"

Agreed, Susan:)

New thread 

11.

Barack Obama Counts On "The Closer"  Michelle Obama Has Played A Key Role In Campaign Of Democratic Presidential Hopeful

What a closer she is, too. I'd want her for my closer too. A comment made at one of her rallies for Barack, was that Barack would make an excellent president and Michelle would make a valued VP.

Michelle attended Princeton U. graduating with honors. Like Barack, Michelle is also a Harvard Law School grad.

From the Obama website:

For three years after law school, Michelle worked as an associate in the area of marketing and intellectual property at Chicago law firm Sidley and Austin, where she met Barack Obama. She left the corporate law world in 1991 to pursue a career in public service, serving as an assistant to the mayor and then as the assistant commissioner of planning and development for the City of Chicago.

In 1993, she became the founding executive director of Public Allies - Chicago, a leadership training program that received AmeriCorps National Service funding and helped young adults develop skills for future careers in the public sector.

Michelle began her involvement with the University of Chicago in 1996. As associate dean of student services, she developed the University's first community service program. Michelle also served as executive director of community and external affairs until 2005, when she was appointed vice president of community and external affairs at the University of Chicago Medical Center. She also managed the business diversity program. 

can't imagine how it could be me, paine. i haven't been in san diego since demfest.

talk about putting the pressure on

OK

Edwards would win in a landslide if only those registered as Democrats as of the Secretary of States lists from the second week in December that are included in our caucus packets

every cycle brings out new people though and with motor votor registration and high school government classes registering the youngest voters, we have a very large number of "independents" who never really thought about joining a party, and for some this is their first opportunity

very few of the independents are those that have rejected the Democratic Party

so of course we welcome newcomers, and they will be disproportionately Obama supporters, with a good number of moderate Republican women who have no home anymore with Republicans

huge turnout and Obama wins and I think it has more to do with joining a movement as your first committment and since Obama did not vote for the war has an edge, and have cultivated an inclusivity that makes participants part of something larger

Hillary is also an historic choice

Edwards has to make it integral to his message in asking all of us to join him in his "epic battle" 

those three are the front runners because they have made it about more than them, which the others never were able to do

so the numbers of second choices going to Edwards will make him a strong contender and Hillary with her impressive organization will get it done as well and be in the mix

there will not be a clear winner unless there is low turnout, but don't bet against the guy who has the rank and file with him, in a caucus state

With Dodd, Biden, Kucinich and Gravel being eliminated from the next debate, don't you get the feeling that we're being herded into an ever narrowing passage where we end up getting stuck in the throat?

It's expected with $$ and polls being taken into consideration that Richardson will be the one to drop out after Iowa. That would leave 3 top runners.

If the Ia caucus does not produce a break away candidate, do you suppose that still another candidate will be eliminated "for us" by the next debate? Do you think it will be one of the Corporate candidates, or the one who wants to reign in the Corporate influence?

I wonder if the peope of NH care whether their choice is being manipulated by witholding information and candidate recognition through curtailing just who they can hear at the debates? Maybe they think it's a good idea and it makes their job easier to have to decide between 3 or 4 as opposed to 8. It must be that the thinking is that 8 is too large a number for NH voters to have to think about.

Phil.......

How long does an out of state college student have to reside in his precinct in order to caucus in IA.?