Bush Problems/Economics Put Rural America in play in 2008

Written by: snow bored on Jun 11, 2007 10:45 AM EDT

crossposted here

the center for rural strategies released their most recent poll today, with findings that democrats have slightly improved democratic chances in rural america.  "The study indicates that negative views about the Bush administration, the war in Iraq, and the economy are eroding the Republican party's rural base."

this could be good news for democrats here in illinois -- if they are resolved to take some of these seats from republicans.  more importantly, it hints at the possibility of once red states turning purple.  "Among the findings of the Rural Strategies poll are: Rural voters deliver a narrow plurality to a generic Democratic candidate for President: 46 - 43 percent."  

in the 2006 election, "rural America split nearly evenly between the parties in congressional races (51 percent for Republican candidates, 48 percent Democratic candidates), [PDF]" according to the VNS exit survey results of self-ascribed rural voters.  but illinois democrats did not benefit from this, except in il-17.  the nomination of weak candidates, or the running of mis-directed campaigns, kept democrats from benefiting from this surge in rural support for democrats in general. focusing specifically on il-14, voters there had a much more positive view of democrats than their votes for john laesch demonstrated.  like the national average, the generic ballot test showed 48% for an unnamed democrat, but laesch underperformed this by almost 20%.  this was not a result of high negatives, but of some unstated discomfort with laesch's candidacy (if the polls couldn't identify it, i can't name it).  it is safe, though, to say that laesch was much more popular online.

in il-11, john pavich was a stronger candidate, but had severe issues putting together a legitimate campaign.  like il-14, candidates and their family had problems letting the campaign separate from their candidacies.  it was a matter of control.  these issues kept the campaign from taking off to the degree that it should have.  still, il-11 and il-15 can't benefit from this surge towards democrats unless they can field strong, credible challengers.  in il-14, at least we have the possibility of a stronger, credible challenger since several candidates have declared to run in the democratic primary.

this is an important trend, potentially putting rural america in play.  unfortunately, many democratic activists are centrally located in urban centers or suburban outliers.  democrats in rural settings need for attractor/activists to emerge in many of the rural counties.  depending on local rural democratic parties, who probably have come to accept their fate as average size fish in a small pond, may not be the best strategy for pushing the electorate to vote democratic.  we need to reach out to our brothers and sisters in the rural environs, encourage them, get them trained and otherwise support them as we are able.  not only is there opportunity here, but challenging republicans at their base will force the battle onto their turf, compelling republicans to fight on the strategic defensive.  iowa and ohio are much more likely to be competitive if democrats make inroads into this part of the electorate...

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