Who's Got the Mo? Big Bad John or B.O.?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 20, 2008 10:28 PM EDT

Linked to groups: DFA County Committee Project, DFA New Jersey, The Passaic County Green Party, DFA Passaic County , Pequannock DFA

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Friends

With 15 days left until blastoff, some in the Republican camp are trumpeting a change in direction, a new wind in the sails for John McCain.  It is said that McCain has regained the momentum, the big "Mo".  Really?  Well, there is a grain of salt to their contention.  Some poll sites show a minor movement towards McCain.

"538" shows a 0.6 point shift (Obama up by 6.6 points and now only 6 points), over a 10 day period.  At that rate of climb, McCain will pull even with Obama in another 100 days. Or give John and Sarah the benefit of the doubt - if they can somehow accelerate the momentum, the gap can be closed in 50 days, or maybe even 25, if Obama's campaign implodes for some reason.  But 15 days, at this rate, would be a mathematical imaginary number.

"Pollster.com" shows Obama leading with margins from 4 to 9 points in all recent polls (Rasmussen minimum at 4, Gallup maximum at 9). The current spread is 5.7 points (49.3 to 43.6) which is narrower than one week ago. However, Pollster reports that polls over the past three days have showed a leveling out, with rough balance among several polls.  My guess is that the "ground game", the advertising advantage and the Powell endorsement all have something to do with this.  If I were McCain and this was Las Vegas, I would not bet the ranch that these kind of gaps can be closed in another 15 days.  But of course, anything is possible.

To gauge the wind and figure out if this leveling off is real, let's look at some other indicators of "mo".  Consider five human beings and their very recent actions - and a last factor, the fourth estate (known in modern parlance as the press).

(1) Ken Adelman
Lifelong conservative Republican, friend of Cheney and Rumsfeld.  Today, Mr. Adelman joined the likes of Christopher Buckley, Colin Powell and a few other notable Republicans.  He came out and endorsed Barack Obama.  Here is a link to a story on that development.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/georgepacker/2008/10/not-quite-colin.html?printable=true&currentPage=all

(2) Sarah Palin
On the plus side (for McCain), her appearance on SNL has not hurt their chances.  But have a look at what Sarah did on Friday at a campaign rally.  She BROKE with John McCain, and advocated for a constitutional ban on same-sex marriages.  That is not McCain's position. Now why does the bottom of the ticket do such a thing?  Because she sees the handwriting on the wall, and is trying to cover her fanny with the conservative base that is her foundation.  Here is the article.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jUUZ7NJlIM4Azi7MafXRythJutNgD93UF9VG0

(3) Colin Powell
Nothing need more be said.  Except to castigate the blatant racism expressed by some of the commentators who talk about the endorsement, since he is "one of them".  A pox on their talking-head souls.

(4) Eric Schmidt
Google CEO.  Endorses Obama.  This might not be surprising, considering the culture (age) of the Google universe, but in fact Mr. Schmidt (53 years old) has a reputation as an independent.  He has taken both sides and on occasion cottons to a "conservative" view of the world, as one might expect of a Fortune-500 business tycoon.  Here is a link to WSJ story:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122446734650049199.html

(5) The Press
In the past three days, Barack Obama has picked up 70 newspaper endorsements.  He leads McCain 112-39, compared to the final Kerry-Bush 2004 count of 213-205 (in Kerry's favor).  Do the math on that.  In 2004, 418 newspapers issued endorsements and broke roughly 50-50.  Now, we have 151 (so far) breaking 75-25 in Obama's favor.  What's more, the papers that have changed sides include Bush stalwarts such as the Houston Chronicle, the Austin American-Statesman and the New York Daily News, an arbiter of the common folk if there ever was one.  The effect of newspaper editorial endorsements is not to be underestimated, since millions of readers are exposed daily to their favorite paper.  Those articles possess "shelf life" and are handed from person to person, unlike a TV ad which is seen and then vanishes. For a link to today's Hearst report, go to:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230

(6) The Daily News
What, you don't believe the Hearst report cited above?  Ok, go right to the source and read why the DN has come around and supports a man who, four years ago, no one would possibly have imagined could win a DN endorsement.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/10/18/2008-10-18_daily_news_endorses_obama_for_president_-4.html

Over the past week, there have been signs which have made me believe that John McCain could stage a second miraculous comeback, on top of his success in the Republican presidential primary.  But with the news cycle of the past two days, I am starting to believe that this time, the American people have the Mo, and are not going to surrender it on November 4th.  There are just too many smoke signals blowing the right - er, I mean, the correct - way this time.

Of course it is not time to relax.  The Obama campaign is going at things full tilt.  If you have not made calls, or knocked on doors - do it.  Talk to your independent and undecided friends.  Ask them if it is possible that 75% of America's press has gotten it wrong.  This election ain't over until it's over. 

- Arctic Eric

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