6:12 PM EDT

Howard is first.

From National Review:

On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls*, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

UPDATE: Brendan Loy looked at Obama's performance in the early exit polls and concludes "Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls."

ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears the early exit poll numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them.

This just came in an email.  Humor!

 The love story of Ralph and Edna



Just because someone doesn't love you the way you want them to, doesn't mean
they don't love you with all they have.

Ralph and Edna were both patients in a mental hospital.

One day while they were walking past the hospital swimming pool. Ralph
suddenly jumped into the deep end.

He sank to the bottom of the pool and stayed there.

Edna promptly jumped in to save him. She swam to the bottom and pulled him
out.

When the Head Nurse Director became aware of Edna's heroic act she
immediately ordered her to be discharged from the hospital, as she now
considered her to be mentally stable.

When she went to tell Edna the news she said, 'Edna, I have good news and
bad news.

The good news is you're being discharged, since you were able to rationally
respond to a crisis by jumping in and saving the life of the person you
love.
I have concluded that your act displays sound
mindedness.

The bad news is, Ralph hung himself in the bathroom with his bathrobe belt
right after you saved him. I am so sorry, but he's dead.'

Edna replied, 'He didn't hang himself, I put him there to dry. How soon can
I go home?'

Happy Mental Health day!

You can do your bit by remembering to send an email to an unstable friend.

I just did.
 

{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{ Jo }}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}

 Life is short.  Eat your dessert first. :-)

Glad you're here tonight, Stat Man. I'm switching to DKos and MSNBC and tolerating (somewhat) the insufferable Pat Buchanan. What does he mean that Barack can't close the deal? Holy cow. It's Hillary who has won a third of the contests

Kelpie Wilson | Why More Food Is Not the Answer
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/042208A.shtml
Writing for Truthout, Kelpie Wilson explains: "With food riots across the globe in the news, the immediate cause of food shortages is simply this: grain prices have doubled over the last year and poor people can no longer afford to buy enough food. There is no one single cause for the price rise; it is a combination of supply and demand."

MSNBC is saying that PA is all about money and if HC doesn't win big, she won't have the money to go on.

Something is very unfair about this, when the person with the most money wins. 

We desperately need campaign reform....a more equal way of choosing nominees and presidents.

Something is very unfair about this, when the person with the most money wins. \

If that person was funded by his/her own money, I would agree.

In this case, Obama's supporters are the small contributors who have funded his campaign.

Clinton takes corporate and lobbyist money and gets some small contributors as well.

Historically, this should mean that Clinton would have many times more money than Obama but she doesn't  because she doesn't have the kind of voter support that Obama has. If she did, she'd be spending it as freely as Obama has.

I don't think this funding is very difficult to comprehend.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Kerry's 2004 exit polls in Ohio and Florida showed him winning handily also and we know what happened there.

Herding voters together as if everyone from a given locale, gender, race, age, etc. were all voting as a block may not always be accurate or flattering to individual voters.

bbl

6:52 PM EDT

jeez, when will the rising oil prices stop ?:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080422/ts_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_080422201618

World oil prices strike record peaks above 119 dlrs

2 hours, 37 minutes ago

NEW YORK (AFP) - World oil prices jumped to record peaks above 119 dollars on Tuesday in response to the weak US dollar, unrest in Nigeria and OPEC's reluctance to hike output, traders said.

...

This is my response to Pat Buchanan's riduculous comment that Barack can't close the deal:

Obama States won: AK, AL, CO, CT, DC, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, KS, LA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, ND, SC, UT, VA, VT, WA-p, WA-c, WI, WY

I'm sticking with my prediction of HC 53 and BO 47 but if Obama wins I am sure of a November win for the Democrats.

An interview with Howard Dean:

http://www.wcax.com/global/story.asp?s=8208408&ClientType=Printable

Joan, I fully understand everything you said.

I'm just saying there might be a better way that doesn't involve obscene amounts of money.   We really can't be sure where all the money is coming from.  Our system/CM is very corrupt.

Altho I sent money a number of times to JE, so I really shouldn't complain....but even then, it didn't feel good.  It didn't feel *right* when I kept sending money to Dean either.

It always seems to be about money...who wins, who loses, who eats, who gets hospital care, who gets to live in a home, who can afford a car.

I like the barter system and have lived in such a place.  But it prolly wouldn't work in a prez election.  Except...."I'll throw you my support if you do such-and-such for me."  

Maybe there is no other way than to be ruled and controlled by money.  It's sad. 

7:28 PM EDT

http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=8211400

Associated Press - April 22, 2008 7:04 PM ET

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - The Iowa Democratic Party's chairman is accusing a congressman of violating House rules by posting disparaging remarks about Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama on his congressional Web site.

Chairman Scott Brennan says he has filed a complaint with the House ethics committee against Steve King, an Iowa Republican.

...

Early PA exit polls: 

WHO SHOWED UP

As expected, Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white and — as usual in Democratic contests — there were more women than men. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. Nearly half were from families that earned less than $50,000 last year. A quarter had household income of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in the household.

LOOKS MATTER

About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender.

MAKING UP THEIR MINDS

One in five voters said they chose their candidate within the final week of the Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday.

ECONOMIC GLOOM

Pennsylvania Democrats had a sour view of the economy — four in 10 said the country is in a serious recession and at least as many called it a moderate recession. Only about one in 10 said the economy is not in recession.

As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.

___

By Patrick Kerkstra, Larry King and Sam Wood

PA INQUIRER STAFF WRITERS

Anticipating big crowds, election watchdogs had urged voters to get to the polls as early as possible.

But the advocacy group Voter Action contended that scores of frustrated citizens had turned away without voting, stymied by broken machines and a lag in providing paper ballots.

At the same time, the city's leading election watchdog, the Committee of Seventy, contended that problems at the polls today have been relatively routine.

Throughout the day, turnout has appeared strong in most sections of Philadelphia and the suburbs. Election judges in many precincts said more voters had turned out to vote by noon than have normally shown up all day during a typical primary.

"It's been a mob scene," David Lipson, a Democratic committeeman in Upper Merion Township said just before noon.

As far as voters voting for a specific race - that could also mean wanting to vote for an AA rather than a White.

MSNBC just said Clinton WILL win whatever that means.

and hello all:)

i've got a secret.  Does anyone else have one?

The pundits are talking as though it's a pretty good win for Clinton. How can they do that with people still in line in Philly?

hi cC

As expected, Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white and — as usual in Democratic contests — there were more women than men. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. Nearly half were from families that earned less than $50,000 last year. A quarter had household income of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in the household.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hillary should have won by fifteen points following the form of her  past wins.

Our daughter in New mexico says the rising gas prices are causing people to just stay home and the local bus system is taking off.  It's my guess that it's not mainly the cost; it's more likely that people are finally realizing they've been taken for a ride and that's a very depressing place to be in.  Maybe the lucky ones are bitter.  They'll get over it sooner.

Printable version

US authorities have arrested a military engineer on suspicion of giving secrets involving nuclear weapons, fighter jets and missiles to Israel in the 1980s.

Ben-Ami Kadish was detained for participating in a conspiracy to disclose documents related to national defence, the justice department said.

Mr Kadish worked at the army's Armament Research, Development and Engineering Centre in New Jersey from 1979 to 1985

As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.

When will the voters connect the billions going down the drain in the ME with our economy?

Has anyone found a website on which to watch the vote tally?

-- volney

When will the voters connect the billions going down the drain in the ME with our economy?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

about six months ago

Good grief.  They're talking about Sibelius as a possible VP since the women who wanted HC will have to be mollified.

Good grief.  Not SW! 

7:52 PM EDT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/23/uselections2008.hillaryclinton1?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews

• Ewen MacAskill in Washington and Suzanne Goldenberg in Philadelphia
• guardian.co.uk,
• Wednesday April 23 2008

Hillary Clinton suffered an early setback in the Pennsylvania primary today when exit polls showed her negative tactics played badly with a majority of voters.

Although polls suggest Clinton was on course to beat Barack Obama in the primary, the poll taken as voters left the ballot box showed 67% thought she had attacked Obama unfairly. This compared with 49% who thought he had attacked her unfairly.

...

 the women who wanted HC will have to be mollified.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

might be true and my dream of Boxer on the ticket becomes a possibility

TOO CLOSE TO CALL. HALLELUJAH!

I thought of you, seashell, when Tim mentioned VP Sominex. LOL

second that Phil - Boxer for VP!

here's a little distraction from the tension - quick before the sunseyt fades - it's lovely!:

http://www.hazecam.net/burlington.html

Printable version

From the beginning, the US government has characterised the operations against Shia militias in Basra and Baghdad as an Iraqi-led and executed campaign.

It is now clear that although the initial military planning was Iraqi, US and British forces are deeply involved.

In the capital's neighbourhood of Sadr City, US infantry troops are fighting alongside Iraqi soldiers, to try to secure areas that were once firmly under the hold of the Mehdi Army, which is loyal to the Shia cleric, Moqtada Sadr.

Reports suggest that US combat units have also been deployed at short notice to Basra from elsewhere in Iraq and the Middle East.

On Monday, a US convoy in the southern city was attacked. A spokesman for the US-led coalition confirmed the bombing, but would give no further details.

A Western military source has also told the BBC that significant numbers of UK and US special forces are in Basra, acting both independently and in support of Iraqi army units.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

why don't we just buy them off like we did the Sunni resistance?  

Based on the exit polls (which Obama usually lags from) suggest a Clinton win by 4% - 6%.

'twenty point lead...and that evaporated."

PENN is too close to call.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/22/194413/539/664/494625

Kansas says engineered crops don't have better yield. 

You can watch msnbc live online - I looked b/c sucky Comcast took it away from my cable.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/...

Boxer?

Sibelius?

For VP?

NO, I don't think so.

WE are taking our country back, not triangulating for votes.  Then again I could see Gore there.  After all, who would want to whack BO then?  Sick, but true. 

I love the new 'spin' about Barack 'outspending' Hill -- the reason he is outspending is b/c he has the D money!!

Monica what the H is your secret????

Obama/Schweitzer or Obama/Webb Schweitzer has a governorship; Webb has the military bona fides.

Granddaughter of a millworker -- sheesh...

69% in Philly
62% in Philly suburbs - where he hoped to break even.

I hope it's closer than 4-6% because I'm getting greedy. LOL

Volney there's some kind of statistics diary on KOS REC list but it perplexed me so I left. Don't know if it is 'live' prolly not.

My interest spikes for Annilow's VP musing.

volney~ CNN's Election Center is a good site for watching vote tally.

It is now clear that although the initial military planning was Iraqi, US and British forces are deeply involv

Good plan - rebuilding a national security force and erasing Al Sadr from the map. 

Thanks, Phil,  but according to the polls, about half say Iraq and the other half economy.  Maybe they had to choose.  Why can't we ever nominate a peace prez?  

Notice that the environment STILL is not being discussed.

mary vb,  thanks for thinking of me.  :-)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I would like to see all future cands being given, for free, equal air time for discussion and for tv and radio ads.  In other words, a CM that co-operated with the public.  We could have a national lottery that would throw money into a gen'l fund...perhaps a tax on something...

Off topic, but we need to know about this.  IMO the coup happened in the 60 with the deaths of MLK, JFK and RFK.  That's when the MIC really took hold.

****************

Ten days before he was shot in Dallas, it has been reported that President Kennedy said in a speech at Columbia University: “The high office of President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the American’s freedom, and before I leave office I must inform the citizen of this plight.”

it was his intention to circumvent the Federal Reserve, by returning the authority to “coin and regulate money” back to the Congress, rather than have it manipulated by the international bankers who print the money and then loan in back to the federal government– with interest. On June 4, 1963, he signed Executive Order #11110 which called for the issuance of $4.3 billion in United States Notes through the U.S. Treasury, rather than the Federal Reserve, very similar to what Abraham Lincoln did. The Order also provided for the issuance of “silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of any outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denominations of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption…” This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury’s vault, the government could issue money against it. This resulted in the introduction of more than $4 billion worth of U.S. Notes into circulation, consisting of $2.00 and $5.00 bills; and although they were never issued, $10.00 and $20.00 notes were in the process of being printed when Kennedy was killed. On Monday, November 25, 1963, the day of Kennedy’s funeral, President Johnson signed an executive order to recall the U.S. Notes that had been issued by Kennedy’s earlier directive; and five months later, the Series 1958 Silver Certificate was no longer issued, and was subsequently removed from circulation.

♡ H A P P Y ♡ E A R T H ♡ D A Y ♡ 

msnbc saying 'too early to call' w/ HIll having taken a lead.

Hey listener - backatcha.

Niece*in*Madrid sent this article today:

The new Spanish cabinet, sworn in by the socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has nine women alongside eight men, including Spain's first woman Defence minister, Carme Chacon, and its youngest-ever cabinet minister, the 31-year-old minister for equality, Bibiana Aido.

This is the country whose exaggerated respect for masculine values added the word "machismo" to the English language. Elderly Spaniards can recall life under General Francisco Franco, when no woman could open a bank account, apply for a passport or sign a contract without her husband's permission. The idea that a woman might serve in the army was, of course, out of the question. They were first allowed in 20 years ago, and now make up nearly a fifth of the total strength of Spain's armed forces.

Even so, the spectacle of the 37-year-old Chacon inspecting the troops on Monday morning dressed in black pants and a white tunic, and visibly pregnant, was altogether too much for the Conservative daily El Mundo, which raged against what it called "an exercise in political marketing" that offended the traditional values and culture of the Spanish army. ...

Full article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/closing-the-gender-gap-why-women-now-reign-in-spain-809619.html


The reign
in Spain
is mainly
old men's bane

We can't afford to lose senators and maybe that's why SW is being discussed.

I like Boxer too but we need our senators.

How many HC supporters will NOT vote for BO?  It could cost him the election. 

msnbc - can't see the screen - looks like C 67% O 33% sheesh!

Thanks Annilow ♡

How many HC supporters will NOT vote for BO?  It could cost him the election.

I don't believe that cr@p at all.  I yai yai ! 

I'm so sick of Pat Buchanan slicing black v white voters. He's sickening to the core. Now the race is too early to call. Looks like annie Oakley will pull out a win but hopefully a narrow one.

Anybody plant a tree today?

Notice that the environment STILL is not being discussed.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It is a staple in both stumps speeches of the two candidates, I have no idea why you think that is true.

Not much difference between the two in calling for a new green economy so since they are similar maybe the press you pay attention to hasn't covered in but the candidates do every day.

paine

something for you to think about

al Queda is Sunni and Sadr is Shia and an elected part of the government.

My man on the scene in Carbondale, PA...Jerry Dzkieckowicz is at Paolos Pizza Pad on Main Street an 8/10 people so far have voted for Hillary....................alot of their rationale is not printable here......................sorry.  Told ya tho....................................

We would only "lose" Boxer as a Senator if she was elected VP and then she would be PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE and break ties.

Obama/Boxer would be a strong ticket. 

Phil Specht
Tue, 04/22/08
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Any spy scandals lately?  ME country by chance?  Ally?

55/44 Hillary per msnbc. Fubar.

Well folks, I've seen the new website. The front page looks like a news feed. The blog works better but it's ugly and less personal. The DFA-Link part looks like facebook. It sucks. I don't like facebook or myspace but I use them. Most all of our folks in my area don't even like the partybuilder. Those programs are too complex for beginners who barley know how to use their email programs or a yahoo list serve group. Anybody over 50 is going to be turned off but maybe that was the idea. And those are the folks who contribute. What a shame.

btw, the logo is VERY ugly.

al Queda is Sunni and Sadr is Shia

I know the difference, Phil.  I am just part of the minority in Dem Party which would have Al Sadr's head on a platter.  I know, I'm a bad person.  

Let me be the first.its 8.53 pm......................Hillary Rodham Clinton wins PA...........................

I did a bunch of fencing today to produce milk from grass for ya'll apaine,lmost as good a planting a tree, and while I was out on the edge of the woods saw where the deer had been browsing on my little oak seedlings that came up fromm the nuts I planted, but they left the walnuts alone.

I may need to do some serious hunting this fall.

save the earth shoot another deer (oops sorry, thinking like a Clinton supporter on an Obama blog)

Margins, anyone? 52-48 I'm seeing a lot of for Hillary. I hope it's under five points.

Mike the over/under to keep it going is eight points

you have to do better than just say Hillary wins if you want to be taken seriously as a prognosticator

oops, it was 55/45, but now it is 53/47.

Silly for the CM not to place a check mark next to Clinton.

Almost a no brainer. 

BUT Clinton is losing support here in Mass 

Bush, Calderon, Harper Reject Renegotiating Nafta (Update3)
By Mark Drajem and Roger Runningen

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and the leaders of Canada and Mexico rejected Democrats' demands that the North American Free Trade Agreement be renegotiated, saying the move would undercut economic growth in each nation.

``Now is not the time to renegotiate Nafta or to walk away from Nafta,'' Bush said at a joint press conference with Mexican President Felipe Calderon and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper today. ``I'm concerned about protectionism in America,'' Bush said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

Hillary Rodham Clinton wins PA...........................  

Barack Obama wins the democratic nomination....................

I burned some weeds today Paine, does that count?

 I am just part of the minority in Dem Party which would have Al Sadr's head on a platter.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'd rather have Osama's

save the earth shoot another deer

Make sure it is a buck, so that you can assume it is an Oler.  Win friends and influence people;-) 

Yes, Phil, she would be prez of the Senate...I forgot that for a minute... and hopefully there wouldn't be any ties. :-)

Yes, they both have stuff on the stump and at the websites about the environment but the CM doesn't report it - even Keithie doesn't...the debates were sparse on it.  

I guess people are more concerned with gas prices so they can drive more and bring about the demise of humanity faster....and afford their monster cars.

 I hope all states get a chance to vote.

the debates were sparse on it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

but by God they remembered the lapel pin

9:04pm EDT 

It's Obama supporters who are more confident: just 6 percent of his supporters in these early results think Clinton will win the nomination; by contrast, two in 10 Clinton supporters think Obama will be the nominee.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4703379&page=1

Crap CNN just called it for her

5% precincts reporting.

Clinton 52
Obama 48

This is better -- from http://www.dailykos.com

the new cars I've been seeing on the road are mid-sized on down, the lots must befilling up with the gas guzzlers

Hi listener!

You're darned right we are confident! Her "win" tonight is not a surprise to us.

Ellis you were nowhere near first - I posted Hill win per msnbc about 10 minutes before you.

I burned some weeds today Paine, does that count?

You are contributing to the cycle, Denise.  Burn more!;-)

they called Texas for Hillary too, I'll wait to see how many delegates each won

Denise~ The margin of the win is more important than the win and so far it's only 4%.

Yes I do know that Karen, thanks!

Phil I'm with ya buddy

Cubbies are in first place. Must be why hope is second nature to me :)

Poor Howard.  What a headache he must have tonight.

if you want to be taken seriously as a prognosticator

As if that would put an end to it.  ;-)

Acoording to this article the victory will not be huge.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/

this is like match play golf

she won this hole but she is down three with three to go

she has to win out, he doesn't

Actually, I should have said anything in single digits is good for Barack considering he was behind by a kajillion points a few weeks ago! :~)

she won this hole

So, what's par on this hole? 

I live in a tiny very modest one bedroom *fixer* home surrounded by huge houses and huge cars.  It's a very affluent area.  My little house looks outta place.  :-)  So around here, the big cars are still on the road.

I drive a Tercel with a "Draft Gore" sticker on the back.  LOL 

I'd rather have Osama's

I have a big appetite, Phil.  Heck, I'll take some venison on top of all that;! 

I wish I could say the humungous vehicles out here are disappearing but sadly they are not. And I always said that unless they were farmers or used them otherwise for making a living, they should not own them. But they do. Out here it's status - or it used to be. Now they just look stupid.

seashell

voters like you give Party leaders headaches

it is easier, if you know where someone stands

either way

undecided voters are vulnerable to having their chains yanked by emotional appeals and negative ads

Howard has to like the new voters and huge trunout, and the progress towards more countable delegates, and more organized precincts

after what Clinton threw at Obama, McCain will be a yawner, old news 

9:18 PM EDT

fyi - new Front thread

There's a new thread up there^

What would happen if BO wins the popular vote and the SDs but polls show that he can't beat McC?

New Thread

Phil you have the patience of a saint.