clinton "won" by 6? she is gone but...

Obama and Howard are first.

Let's see where this goes.

I had to step away from the tv. My head is about to explode with the pundits. Hillary won but it doesn't appear to be with the margins she needed so why are they so giddy and saying now she's moving onto Indiana?

who has the best link that shows how the delegate count plays out by Congressional District?

The margins are likely to change as the evening progresses.  Only 12 per cent of the vote is in.

Guess I'm just a cockeyed optimist, but if the margin is close enough, things could change for the better. 

I hope her funders get fired up enough to donate enough to clear the bills of the small vendors.

Phil, have you too been scrolling me too much?

I'M NOT UNDECIDED.  I SAID RIGHT AFTER JE LEFT THE RACE THAT I WOULDN'T BE VOTING IN THE PRIMARY AND WOULD VOTE FOR THE NOMINEE AGAINST THE REPUG. IN THE GENERAL.

I'm an Indy, for goodness sake.  Unless you meant that we're a headache for the general.  Good grief.  That's a no-brainer.  Go democrats!

OR is very likely to go to BO.   

Happy EARTHDAY

eat grass

and decriminalize 

OR is very likely to go to BO.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Why not you?

why are they so giddy and saying now she's moving onto Indiana?

mary~ they're hoping she's moving on because, otherwise, what would they have to rant about.

Paine :)

WYWHTBOWM (think about it)

mary vb, have you considered that not all citizens have voted and should have the same rights as you?

I hear where you're coming from...but I believe that all people who want to vote get a chance to do so. 

"May you live in an interesting time."

Chinese proverb 

Denise~ GO CUBBIES! :~)

Phil, I'm still in luv with Howard/Gore/Dodd/Kucinich/Edwards, that's why.  :-)

9:27 PM EDT

the PA democrat demographics were highly skewed older female:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA

Denise - so cryptic.  LOL  I love it.

Who is keeping anyone from voting seashell?

Sometimes I just don't understand where you're coming from. Sorry just being honest.

Yeah but do you know what it means seashell?

Hillary's obliterating Iran comments have disqualified her from the Presidency.

On the PA state website, about 20% of the voes are counted and it's a 4% difference.

You can click the map and view by county.

BTW, Ron Paul is blowing Mike Huckabee out of the water. There's a story they ought to be reporting, LOL!

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/


-- volney

"I think he (BO) is pretty good at pot roast and potatoes" ~ McCaskill (D-MO)

9:35 PM EDT

looks like Phil and Obama were correct -- a 6% winning spread for Clinton in PA

I can't figure it out, Denise.

seashell

Howard Dean is Chair of the Democratic Party. How can you not want to register and vote in the primary?

I do not understand.

Wow, did Denise just jump in front of Denise?

9:44pm EDT

< CM says Hillary will speak in@ 5min 

PA was taylor made for Clinton, no one should be surprised at a "win", but she has to pick up 20 or more delegates on Obama for it to matter. these are contests to allocate the delegates, each and every one of them and no one state's delegates matters anymore than another

Annilow
Tue, 04/22/08
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Low................dont blame me..........if there was a blog clock that would indicate you were first.....we dont go by the numberrs on this blog anymore..they are usually out of order..........BUT, if it means that much to you..............you can have it.............

Six percent is a loss for Clinton isn't it??? The pundits are using Clinton talking points - all of them except for Tweety (if you can believe that). This will be a long night.

Phil Specht
Tue, 04/22/08
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

On that note Phil........the general is taylor made for Mccain..............its been taylor made for republicans since 1980...........hey, Im as sick of it as anybody..............UNLESS the American people want to turn it around for once, and I dont mean Dems or Indys.............but they wont......

I hope a whole slew of super d's come forward pronto for Barack. I don't want another lying warmonger as POTUS. Also, Bill Clinton has become such an annoyance - the mere thought of him roaming the WH with too much time on his hands just kills me.

McCain has a hundred thousand votes to over seven hundred thousand between the Democrats, Mike

and the results are only rural precincts so far

Obama might pull off a Texas style win with the delegate count

Hillary's obliterating Iran comments have disqualified her from the Presidency.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

mary.....................oh forget it................you lived in Europe too long..............alot of these people have been nuke happy since the 50s......................they love hearing that stuff...............it will sell as will mccain sword ratling.........................

Phil Specht
Tue, 04/22/08
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Again Phil, I hope you are right on both counts.............I wanna be proven wrong ..for once.

McCain only has 70% of the Republican vote.

The old duffer can't even pull off a big win when he is the only man left standing.

"Obama might pull off a Texas style win with the delegate count"

Only in the Democratic delegate formulae and in Tom Petty's
'Even the Losers" can the loser win.

November will not allow such nonsense.

....I wanna be proven wrong ..for once.

Oh, how magnanimous.  Good for you old boy.hahah 

   I celebrated Earth Day by doing a little fishing in the great outdoors. The reservoir water was still clean, the air still smelled fresh, the fish were still there and biting, the sun still shone through a bright blue sky.......but for how much longer? Just when does it get to that point of no return, when it's too late to fix it? ( when the food you eat, water you drink, air you breathe, are all poison?) What shape is this Earth, that we will soon pass off to the next generation, really now in???..........In a weird mood today.
                                                           Please excuse my "Earth Day" Thoughts
                                                                               JM in NY

Oregon is already voting aren't they, so seashell can walk in, change to being a Democrat, ask for a ballot ,and go home and stew for a week and then mark it and mail it, I think.

and do Howard proud

WYWHTBOWM

Oregon is already voting aren't they, so seashell can walk in, change to being a Democrat, ask for a ballot ,and go home and stew for a week and then mark it and mail it, I think.

OMG, then she'll have a dog in the race?   

Paine :)

Someday I'll tell you, perhaps over lunch. WYWH means wish you were here :)

There is no Youtube insert for our blog comments. That sucks.

"Earth Day" Thoughts

I was saying to folks all day today,  "Happy EARTHDAY!)"

And they would smile and say, "I didn't know that it was EARTHDAY today!)  Thank you:-)" 

41%     59%      12%        19%      37%   32%
 
 
Male  Female  18-29    30-44   45-59    60+

Obama had to many older people

Hillary had more women

hahaha, I think ;-) I get it Denise!

The whole site is too wide. The right side of the pages are cut off from view.

"Earth Day" Thoughts

Tip of the hat to Jeff Morris in NY

Give it up, when the moment induces you, folks. 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

~~~~~~~~~~~

some deeper analysis here, the areas that favor Obama haven't reported much

I knew you would Paine cuz you're intelligent :)

Hey brown came to visit me today - nice guy. He brought a seal a meal machine my friend sent to me so I can vacuum wrap delicacies. Go brown!

There is no Youtube insert for our blog comments.

There is on my browser.

'Even the Losers" can the loser win.

November will not allow such nonsense.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

tell that to President Gore

the electoral college is nearly identical to allocation of delegates

What can brown do for you?

Whatsup suckers.

Ready to watch the next incarnation of the electbility corporate infotainment machine in action?

Told you. :P

"VN" up to 10 in Michigan

i miss you kooks. 

Hillary knows ...

it is all but over.  It is over, and she knows it. 

The Democratic Party delegate allocation rules are such that the winner of the most delegates has the best shot at picking up the electoral college victory in theory.

add the two candidates together and compare it to McCain

things are looking pretty good for the fall with Obama heading the ticket

he can win Virginia and Missouri and Colorado

wow I started at 1 and now at 4  this sucks. jim where are u?

yes phil I am in Va and I am for Obama

Hey jax!! Miss your voice too

TTfolks.  I am headin' off to dream...wait for it...green/earth thoughts.

Be good to each other and fight.

Night; 

Clear, calm words that I am grateful for ~ 

Phil from bottom of the last thread:

Howard has to like the new voters and huge trunout, and the progress towards more countable delegates, and more organized precincts

Linda b from upthread:

Let's see where this goes.

Susan Rowe why have you seen our new blog and we haven't?

10:23 PM EDT

8% spread at 2/3rds of precincts counted

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA

8% was Tweety's margin. Chuck Todd's was 7%. Neither will bring her a victory. Tom Brokaw said the big dawgs with Hillary's campaign fundraising said 10%. I hope reality sets in tomorrow.

By Tweety and Todd's margins - that was her under/over number. Kos had it at 19%. LOL

Phil,

Come on.

The electoral college is winner take all.
State by state.

Think about what won't get done about health care under the McCain administration.
Think about the additional blood and treasure squandered in the sands of Iraq by the McCain administration.

Think about the McCain administration. 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june08/sbdebate_04-18.html

MARK SHIELDS: I think the expectations is a little unfair. I think winning is coming in first. And I think, right now, that Pennsylvania is a good fit for Hillary Clinton.

DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I think -- I mean, obviously, it's early to look at general election polls. He's [Obama] behind in Pennsylvania against McCain; he's behind in Ohio; he's behind in Florida. He's tied in a lot of states he absolutely has to win, like New Jersey.

So the Democrats should be crushing the Republicans this year. The fact that it's basically tied in the national polls is not great signs for the fall.

10:23 PM EDT

8% spread at 2/3rds of precincts counted

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

they still haven't reported Obamas strong precincts

Ronald the only way McCain can win is if Clinton supporters torpedo Obama.

right now Obama has four times the vote of McCain tonight in PA

Seashell, am I correct that what you are saying upthread is that you hope everyone who wants to vote has chance to vote (meaning all states get to vote) before a nominee is crowned?  I totally agree with that.  It is really frustrating to be in a small state or a state that votes later in the process because typically you are more or less invisible.  It's good in that sense that this time even the later states are drawing interest.  And I say that as a Vermonter ~ the only state that Bush and neither of the Democratic candidates has visited.  (McCain came to the airport, said a few words, waved and left.)

I am an Independent also.  I work at the polls and when it comes time to count the vote I am as valauble as a Universal blood donor.  Ha!  We always have two people from different parties count a batch of votes.  I can count with anyone!  I always vote in the Primary and the General Election.  Why should Dems and Repubs have all the nominating power to choose the candidates I'll have to choose between?  But apart from my own town, I feel myself less "included" in the blanket statements made by the large parties, so it kind of annoys me when they call me up ASSUMING I'm in their camp.

Well, it's late and I'd best be careful or I'll fall off this box of soap!  LOL!

David Brooks is wishful thinking.

Ronald if I were a Clinton supporter like you I would be spinning it too, but the nomination is decided by delegates.

LOL!  Hubby just made up a political cartoon (in verbal form only so far)...

Phil in PA predicted in March that there would be 6 more weeks of Primary

because Hillary saw Barack's shadow. 

Karen...that's a perpetual state for Brooks.  LOL!

You really need to stop by more often listener!

Chuck Todd Election Analysis

Explains why even with her win tonight it is almost impossible for her to win nomination.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwd88C25J-0&eurl=http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog

Wife is on the edge of her seat tonight...not me, this looks like under 10% which is a win for Obama in my book...Hillary was supposed to win by 20% just weeks ago. Hillary can't win now...the pundits are spinning hard...bunch of fools is what they look like.

Russert said the NY Times will have an Op-Ed tomorrow titled *Low path to victory* about Clinton's low road antics and rhetoric.

I wonder if Hillary pre-paid for that venue tonight because if not those folks won't be seeing any greenbacks from her any time soon.

The Low Road by NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinio...

Explains why even with her win tonight it is almost impossible for her to win nomination.

I've seen several analysis since super Tuesday that put Barack at winning almost nothing, and Hill winning everything and still being impossible for her to win the nomination.

Kerry was up 31 at his peak, Dukakis 28

I'll take a come from behind victory anyday.

Tom Vilsack was down 18 six weeks before he became Gov. here in Iowa.

Obama can win Nebraska

the pundits are spinning hard...bunch of fools is what they look like.

Well, whatever WILL they do when this is over! Possibly their jobs are on the line.

Here's the money quote from the Times article:

It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind with they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If she is ever to have a hope of persuading these most loyal of Democrats to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs.

---------
I'm afraid it's long past this. She is sucking the life out of this entire primary season.

10:55 pm EDT

Phil~ Any word if they've reported Obamas strong precincts yet? 

The new site has no mention of Gov. Dean anywhere on it nor does it mention Jim Dean as our Chair. There is no history anywhere. So much for their new branding efforts being a success. It looks like they started from scratch. So sad. What a waste of money and time.

"Ronald the only way McCain can win is if Clinton supporters torpedo Obama.

right now Obama has four times the vote of McCain tonight in PA"

I disagree, as do the polls cited by David Brooks.
Voters will make up their own minds.  Don't blame it on "Hillary supporters."
And, by the standard you raise, Hillary's numbers in Florida look good against McCain too.

It is a long stretch to project that the electorate in the red and battleground states that relected GWB in 2004 will hand over the keys to the White House to Barack Obama - freshman Senator from Illinois.  It has always been a stretch.

He has not beaten HRC one on one in Pennsylvania or Ohio.

He needed to do that to prove the November electorate was ready for his Presidency.

The VP slot and the ascendancy to the throne (well, as close as USA gets to a throne anyway) is his if he will take it and do his part to put HRC in the WH with the PA and OH electoral votes that she has demonstrated her chances for capturing in November.

Otherwise, he can claim the mantle of inevitability on the basis of an absurd delegate apportionment formula, compete, and probably lose to John McCain.

Justice Stevens is 88. 

Philly is still out but Philly suburbs appear to be in. He's ahead in Lancaster!!!

Lovin Barack's Indiana speech.

I think he will win Indiana and No Carolina.

Susan~ How is it you have access to the new site?

are we really still considering electabilty?

jesus...some people never learn. 

"May you live in an interesting time."

Chinese proverb

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

May you live in interesting times  is a curse. . . . 

or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing

Obama  - "Don't ever forget you have the power to change this country".

Chester county (Philly) only 21% reporting as of 11:10 pm EDT.

absurd delegate apportionment formula

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

so that is the Clinton line???

I use it too if I couldn't win the delegate count I guess. Clinton isn't going for the Democratic Party nomination she is going for the Clinton Party nomination?

Night friends,

It's good to hear your comments.  It helps.  Tomorrow's another day.  Frankly, if this country chooses either McCain or Clinton, they deserve what they get.   

Tim Russert said the RNC in NC will hold a news conference with some information on Obama. WTF? I can't take much more of this. The Clintons could care less about this country - it's all about them.

Clinton might beat the line by one and miss the over/under by one and come up just short.

I give her credit for a good fight.

She needs to win North Carolina next to stay in it.

nite all

Thank you, puddle, for correcting me.  I was thinking curse and wrote proverb.  LOL

****************

Seashell, am I correct that what you are saying upthread is that you hope everyone who wants to vote has chance to vote (meaning all states get to vote) before a nominee is crowned?

yes, listener, that's precisely what I meant. 

***********************

I thought both speeches quite good. I wish he hadn't said, " And god bless America."  I've always found that statement to be exclusive and arrogant.  Most presidents use it.  Sad.  How about "god bless our  planet?"  Or..."may the Force be with you?"  LOL

11:25 PM EDT

10% spread at 91% of precincts counted

nite all (good effort to Obama and all his supporters)

Phil,

Spinning is the second place finisher claiming victory.
The nomination will be decided by delegates.  Delegates would do the party and the nation well to review basic math and the electoral college,  Take a look at how John McCain won his delegates in a fashion that mimicked the electoral college.

Because, the states and the electoral college ELECT THE PRESIDENT.

There is honor in nominating a charismatic candidate with some intellectual depth and a change agenda (it would be better if said agenda was not so loosely defined) and rallying behind his banner to "fight the good fight."

I am impatient for health care reform and some restoration of progressivity in the tax code that a Clinton administration is certain to deliver.  The nation's margin of error is not what is was in the Reagan years or in 2001 when GWB slithered in.

The working class, rust belt, battleground states have, for the most part chosen Hillary.
The proverbial elites of the party ought to treat that outcome with more deference than is displayed here,  The relief that a Democratic President will fight to deliver is something PA and OH don't want to wait for.  Neither do I.      

Good Night

92.

Karen
Tue, 04/22/08

I got an email that was written with a real attitude from Charles Chamberlain asking me to be apart of the sites beta testing.


Check out Mr. Watson's profile page. It has an interesting quote and no picture. http://www.dfalink.com/profile.php?id=26...

From Obama campaign memo

The only surprising result from Pennsylvania is that in a state considered tailor-made for Hillary Clinton that she was expected to win, Barack Obama was able to improve his standing among key voter groups since the Ohio primary.   For example, among white voters, Obama narrowed the gap with Clinton by six points. Among voters over 60, he nearly cut the gap in half, from 41 points to 24 points.   And Independent voters – the group that will decide the general election and a group Obama is particularly strong with – were not able to vote in Not surprisingly, she led by as much as 25 points in the weeks leading up to the election.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog

Night all. 

He offer to throw some free chum to group organizers for testing out the site. It's an old union political organizer tactic. It's like throw a led dog a chew toy. So the others dogs have to slobber and beg before they get buy theirs. So much for reform.

Would it be incorrect for me to surmise that there are more delegates to be had in urban areas as opposed to rural areas?

Paul Bregala is such an ass. He actually just said on CNN that he supports negative campaigning such as Hillary's and thinks it's good.

I didn't even feel that looking glass I must have fallen through.

And this whole BS line about having to win the big states is just that - BS.

Right now there are 2 dems running. During the GE there will be ONE and if the dems come out in force like they did today there is no way McCain takes it.

People are emoting in the exit polls. I sincerely doubt any true Dem will vote for McCain in the GE. They are just out of their minds temporarily if they truly believe that is the path they will eventually take. Spite does not a democracy make.

Good night

65.

Annilow
Tue, 04/22/08


see 100.

And this whole BS line about having to win the big states is just that - BS.

Sure is! It's always been the team with the most points wins the game, it's as simple as that!

Mary Ann Gould: From Invisibility to Beyond: "Voice of The Voters" 7:30PM ET Wednesday, 4/23 Millions of PA voters sought to exercise their right to vote on Tuesday,yet the 90% using state's voting machines were "voting blind."Citizen activists hit the streets to watch the parts of the process that they could monitor.In this 90-minute special edition of Voice of the Voters&American Voices we'll ask:--Why is PA now being called the Invisible State; portents for the future?--Were voters able to vote or turned away?Why?

HAPPY EARTH DAY!!!

*************

since annie oakley isn't pointing her smoking finger at mccain, i will.

'the fabulous life of john mccain' is playing on youtube.  show it in every bar in working class america. 

it doesn't end with the keating five.  the two-faced maverick has been caught in a questionable land deal, interceding on behalf of his friend to buy army land for less than $1 million, then selling it two years later for $20 million.  see salon.com's war room.

************

a HUGE public health statistic was released today--the u.s. longevity rate has declined after trending upward for a century.  this rate and the infant mortality rate are the brackets which are used to quickly assess the health of a nation.  with this most recent stat, we might well be behind cuba.

**************

obama presents data--number of elected delegates, the popular vote, and the number of states won--to the superdelegates to win their votes.  clinton presents the glass ball--what if, what if, what if. 

actually, mccain is more likely to fit in the glass ball scenario b/c of his melanoma.  ron paul's supporters might be happy to bring that up in the remaining repub primaries.

Suzanne Erb: Voting in Pennsylvania As a blind voter,I have always wanted to vote privately/independently.In the past,poll workers have assisted me""sometimes only one""and I was not confident my votes had been cast as I intended.The whole process took about forty minutes""about 30 minutes to vote in 8 contests.Though I was able to vote privately and independently,I voted on a paperless e-voting machine, like most other Pennsylvanians,and still have no idea if

U S called a house of cards just on brink! Bush may have started the perfect storm that will end America. This is no joke.

Professor Emeritus Peter Bagnolo: Fascism Redux: The Fraudulent Applications of John's Revelations/Apocalypse (8 comments)

good night to obama supporters who fought the good fight in pennsylvania.  you did well.

Obama should drive a wedge here

"today's conservatives have forgotten that big business is often the enemy of free markets."

Thanks for the note, seashell!  :-)

The difference between HC or BO and McC.

United States Supreme Court.   And many more differences, health care being a biggie.

The following is a quote from one of our bloggers:

"If there are some who still can't seen the difference between Dems (even DLC Dems) and Rethugs after all that's happened, then they really need some serious self-examination and counseling."

As of one hour ago, HC had raised 2.5 million tonight so she'll be going on.

Clinton, speaking to reporters in Conshohocken just now, said she'd campaign for a united Democratic Party, no matter who's the nominee. 4/23

Denise...I had a nice post all ready to go when my laptop appeared to be overheating a bit and began to emit a slight metallic smell.  So I shut down fast (and forgot to hit "Submit" first! Argh! Hubby and I went for a walk to watch the moonrise (it's a great destress walk!), then came back cooler and so was the laptop, so here I am.

Mainly I just wanted to respond to your kind post upthread saying that I need to come here more often.

I would be more inclined to come by more often if it wasn't so frustrating to read through the thread with all the posts messed up,

and I would be more inclined to post more if I believed DFA still really cares about the Blog at all,

and I would be here to converse more if I felt more "included" in the process these days, but as it is I often feel that mostly what is asked of Independents (by the Parties and their organisations) is to pretend we're Democrats or at least hush up and donate more.

What brings me here tonight is knowing that there would be others watching the returns and sharing links and information and commiseration as needed.

As David says, "And, as always, it is very good to be here among friends."  ♥ 

Here's where the blog posts were landing at 12:20am or so...

More needed humor.

This was sent in by pretty much everyone.

Well, Hill netted SIX delegates tonight.

new thread

NEW THREAD