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Clinton's Wins Indicate Superior Electability

Written by: publius on Mar 5, 2008 2:26 PM EST

Linked to groups: DFA Atlanta Alumni Crew

In the primary states - where voters go to the polls and choose just like they will in November - the popular vote totals are astonishingly close. A microscopic % 0.33 (That's ZERO . POINT three three percent) separates Obama's 83584 vote advantage from Clinton's total.

However, the road to the White House runs through the Electoral College.
Clinton's primary performance in the rich electoral states and in those states whose electoral votes went to Gore and Kerry is DECISIVE ! Obama's electoral deficit against Clinton is a whopping 31percent, 34 percent inside the blue states.

Okay Democrats, do you want to win a nomination OR do you want to win the White House?

The responsibilty of party officials known as Superdelegates is to put a Democrat in the White House. In that contest, the Electoral College rules. (Hope format of table holds on post, Vote Totals shown in Extended Entry/Read more)

              Obama   Clinton           Obama   Clinton     Obama        Clinton
Primary  Primary   Primary       Electoral   Electoral   Blue Elect    Blue Elect
States    Votes      Votes            College   College     Votes           Votes

VT         91033      59428             3                                3
RI          73609     106471                           4                                      4
TX     1354672   1453139                          34
OH      979025   1207806                          20
Wis     645,554    452,590          10                               10
NM       71,396      73,105                            5
DC      85,534       27,326            3                                  3
MD    464,474     285,440          10                                10
VA     623,141     347,252          13
LA     220,588     136,959            9
AZ     191,681     228,158                          10
CA  1,890,026  2,306,361                          55                                    55
UT       70,373      48,719             5
OK     130,087    228,425                            7
MO    405,284    395,287           11
IL    1,301,954    662,845           21                                 21
AR       80,774    217,313                            6
NY     697,914  1,003,623                          31                                     31
MA    511,887     704,591                          12                                      12
GA    700,366     328,129          15
TN    250,730     332,599                           11
CT    179,349    164,831            7                                    7
AL    302,684     226,454           9
NJ    492,186     602,576                           15                                      15
DL     51,124      40,751             3                                    3
FL   569,041     857,208                            27
SC  295,091     141,128             8
NH  104,772     112,251                              4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 12834349 12750765      127          241                 57                 117

Diff         83584                       -114                                -60

% Diff       0.33%                    -30.98%                        -34.48%

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Location: Macon, GA 31210

Discuss
 

Reply

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By * cChalfonte* on Mar 5, 2008 10:58 PM EST

Deans R 1.
50-state is 1.

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By Karen on Mar 5, 2008 11:00 PM EST

From Newsweek...

"Hillary Clinton won big victories Tuesday night in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. But she's now even further behind in the race for the Democratic nomination. How could that be? Math. It's relentless.

To beat Barack Obama among pledged delegates, Clinton now needs even bigger margins in the 12 remaining primaries than she needed when I ran the numbers on Monday—an average of 23 points, which is more than double what she received in Ohio.

Superdelegates won't help Clinton if she cannot erase Obama's lead among pledged delegates, which now stands at roughly 134. Caucus results from Texas aren't complete, but Clinton will probably net about 10 delegates out of March 4. That's 10 down, 134 to go. Good luck"...

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By sunlight on Mar 5, 2008 10:18 PM EST

it isn't the voters fault that their critters made the stupid decision to hold illegal early primaries...just seems to me that the people should still have a right to their vote.

Yes, the voters are resposible. They voted for the critters.

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By * cChalfonte* on Mar 5, 2008 11:05 PM EST

s/b 50-state strategy.

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By sunlight on Mar 5, 2008 10:19 PM EST

Sorry, if I had known that my post would be bumbed up.....~~

dean is first

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By sunlight on Mar 5, 2008 10:21 PM EST

bumbed is so much nicer than bombed or just plain bumped or bumble

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By Karen on Mar 5, 2008 11:18 PM EST

This is good! 

"Obama's aides are more than ready to turn their half-hearted criticism into a full-blown attack on the Clintons. Among the targets on the Obama campaign's list: the Clintons' tax returns, Bill Clinton's international business relationships and the secret donors to the Clinton foundation"...

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By volney simmons on Mar 5, 2008 10:33 PM EST

Obama remains ahead in 20 f Texas' 31 CDs.

Go-bama!

-- volney

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By sunlight on Mar 5, 2008 10:34 PM EST

Hillary Clinton won big victories Tuesday night in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.

Anybody who believes that has fallen prey to the spin doctors.

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By * cChalfonte* on Mar 5, 2008 11:20 PM EST

Howard Dean's statement on the Michigan and Florida delegate situation:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.

"Through all the speculation, we should also remember the overwhelming enthusiasm and turnout that we have already seen, and respect the voters of the ten states who have yet to have their say.

"As we head towards November, our nominee must have the united support of a strong Democratic Party that's ready to fight and ready to beat John McCain. After seven years of Republican rule, I am confident that we will elect a Democratic president who will fight for America's families in the White House. Now we must hear from the voters in twelve states and territories who have yet to make their voices heard."

^from myDD^

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By sandy m on Mar 5, 2008 11:22 PM EST

If Obama wins the caucas in TX, and receives more delegates than Clinton, will he be named winner of TX?

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:22 PM EST

Buck up, Obama supporters. This is HUGE:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3...

THE 50 Super delegate thingy.

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By * cChalfonte* on Mar 5, 2008 11:22 PM EST

the Florida Democratic Party released this statement earlier today (h/t Ben Smith):

"It is important to remember that the Democratic nominating process does not end until June 10. The Florida Democratic Party continues to work with our leadership, Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama and the Democratic National Committee to ensure this state is fully represented at the National Convention.

"We have discussed many things, ranging from the plans for the general election to a potential alternative primary to the process for appealing to the credentials committee of the National Convention to seat our delegates as currently allocated.

"It is important that we are clear about one issue. At this time, no suggested alternative process has been able to meet three specific and important requirements: the full participation from both candidates, a guaranteed commitment of the millions of dollars it will cost to conduct the event and a detailed election plan that would enfranchise all Florida Democrats, including our military service members serving in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Between that and the willingness of Jennifer Granholm to hold a caucus, it certainly seems the states are amenable to a re-vote of some description. So I guess it's up to the candidates, then.

^from myDD^

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By Jennie Lorain on Mar 5, 2008 11:23 PM EST

I'm looking forward to hearing Clinton's Texas concession speech.

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:24 PM EST

s m - not the winner of the primary - just the caucus. Obama will come out with more delegates from TX so in theory he did *win* it.

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By sandy m on Mar 5, 2008 11:26 PM EST

Mary, thank you for posting that.  I so hope it is true.

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By sunlight on Mar 5, 2008 10:40 PM EST

Why is questioning or what I want to know spinned as an attack?

That's the thing, Americans want a tough leader ideally one that knows how to play dirty.

I suspect  McCain will be America's next president.

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By mainefem on Mar 5, 2008 10:39 PM EST

Maine is pulling illegal do-over sh^t , too, folks.

Very Clintonista.

Not one inch, indeedy. 

 Gov. Baldacci pulled crap on caucus day, also--all over Penobscot County.

Expect massive anarchy, if this continues!

 

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:36 PM EST

I have some long afternoons in my car shuttling my son to his lacrosse practice (45 min's away) and I listen to Ed Schultz, Rachel Maddow and Rhandi Rhodes. The sentiment today with these talk show hosts and the large majority of the callers is that Hillary is fighting dirty, etc. and will ruin the Dem's chances in Nov. Some of these people that call in are so passionate. Today so many of the Obama supporters were so dispirited. Are the Clinton people (and many in the media) that in the dark about the math involved here and do the Clinton's just not care?

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By publius on Mar 5, 2008 10:50 PM EST

I have added up the Electoral College math of getting into the White House and posted that, based on primary vote victories, it is Obama who comes up short.

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:45 PM EST

The other side of the 50 Super Del. story - from Hotline:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/a...

Nothing coy about the Obama denial. Who knows?

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By volney simmons on Mar 5, 2008 11:04 PM EST

If Obama wins enough caucus delegates to have the greater share of Texas delegates (primary plus caucus delegates), then yes, he is the winner of the state of Texas.

Should this occur, and should it fail to be reported, we need to climb all over the media and give them a mighty earache until they report it.

-- volney

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:51 PM EST

It was Clinton who reassured Canada about NAFTA - not Obama. What a bloody tangled web.

From Josh Marshall at TPM

ttp://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/181749.php

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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:51 PM EST
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By mary vb on Mar 5, 2008 11:53 PM EST

The NAFTA story breaks after the people in Ohio voted. Unbelievable.

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:15 PM EST

Whenever I hear, "electability," I'm always reminded of President John F. Kerry.

 

 

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By mary vb on Mar 6, 2008 12:05 AM EST

BTW, this thread topic is just silly. Clinton has superior electability - in what 13 states? Jennie Lorraine's post disputes Ronald's nonsense.

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:19 PM EST

Canada had really better hope Obama doesn't become prez after their bit of skullduggery against him.

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By Susan Rowe on Mar 6, 2008 12:10 AM EST

Mr. Cloud sure does like to make a lot of assumptions. And you know what most folks say about that.

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:21 PM EST

BTW, this thread topic is just silly.

The current method of picking thread topics sucks more than the crummy software.

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:23 PM EST

Mr. Cloud sure does like to make a lot of assumptions.

He just regurgitates the worms The Clintons place down his throat. 

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By sandy m on Mar 6, 2008 12:15 AM EST

I'm still hoping there is truth to the 50 delegate story.

So now it is known that it was actually Clinton who gave the wink, is she going to apologize to Obama for her slander.

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By FRED from OR on Mar 5, 2008 11:25 PM EST
32.
Phil Specht
Wed, 03/05/08

Reply to this

Fred

pretty cool Oregon matters eh?

=========================

Yea, we haven't gotten our bumper stickers yet but we got one T-shirt and some buttons.

Oregon is a very strange state politically.  The liberal and conservative stereotypes are hard to find in great numbers here.  Most people are some kind of hybrid, many leaning libertarian, but I was surprised by the level of Obama support among Democrats.

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By jane d on Mar 5, 2008 11:26 PM EST

Let's listen to Howard Dean's interview on NPR today... discussing the 50 state campaign, playing by the rules, and doing the right thing......
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story...

I still love the man.
Jane

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By mary vb on Mar 6, 2008 12:16 AM EST

I guess we now know why Bill Clinton flew to Canada, hey?


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By Ellen Garneau on Mar 6, 2008 12:18 AM EST

Good Evening Everyone! 

 OK. I think I'm a little confused here... LOL

 Is the point of the article by Ron Cloud is that if Obama couldn't beat Clinton in NY then he won't be able to beat McCain there either? (Which I think is a big stretch but can't figure out any other point he may be trying to make.) Peace. "Dogma"

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By FRED from OR on Mar 5, 2008 11:29 PM EST

I disagree that Clinton is more electable.   She has lovers and haters.  Obama has very few haters.   He appeals to more independents and frustrated Republicans.  His incredible margins in the red/rural area means his appeal in those cultures in what we need to win in a 50 State strategy. 

Kerry was thought to be more "electable"  but many party leaders forget that we need votes from people outside the party to win. 

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:36 PM EST

Hillary’s New Math Problem

It's not too hard to imagine prominent superdelegates asking Obama to consider putting Hillary on the ticket.

This might be the wrong move for him. A national-security choice like Sen. Jim Webb, former senator Sam Nunn or retired general Anthony Zinni could make more sense. But if Obama did ask Clinton, don't assume she would say no just because she has, well, already served as de facto vice president for eight years under her husband. (Sorry, Al).

To carry on with a topic from previous threads -- Not only will it be politically unwise for Obama to take The Clintons and their baggage into his campaign, it's unneccessary.

Obama can win over the those who are voting hor Hillary just because she's female by choosing either Gov. Napalitano or Gov. Sibelius for VP -- and put AZ or KS into play in the process. 

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By mary vb on Mar 6, 2008 12:31 AM EST

More on NAFTAGATE:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/5/2...

I hope Clinton sinks like a stone in PA. I would imagine there are a lot of OH voters who were taken in because of the NAFTA story.

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By mary vb on Mar 6, 2008 12:36 AM EST

I'm just getting warmed up: from a poster at Kos.

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Sen' Bill Bradley was on "The NewsHour" on PBS this evening and said that Bill Clinton refuses to release the contributors list of people to his library. He claims that if that information is released, it will show who Hillary's major campaing contributors are, and will seriously endanger her presidential bid. That list must contain some very corrupt individuals.
http://abcnews.go.com/...
------

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By Sitka on Mar 5, 2008 11:50 PM EST

So now it is known that it was actually Clinton who gave the wink, is she going to apologize to Obama for her slander.

One thing the Bush's and Clintons never do -- admit to wrongdoing or mistakes.

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By audrey.nc on Mar 6, 2008 12:07 AM EST


I wonder sometimes what the reasoning is behind some of the thoughts here.

I'm trying to visualize the debate between VP Sibelius and possible vP Charlie Crist. same for Napolitano. Minced meat. Of course Sibelius might win by putting Crist to sleep. Was there supposed to be some political savvy here?

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By Annilow on Mar 6, 2008 12:14 AM EST

I surely hope that the MSM - Cafferty, Olbermann at least, pick up on the story that the original Canadian comment was from the Hillary camp. And they add the tidbit oh by the way that Bill Clinton was in Canada this weekend. I think this little story is gonna be Obama's "Dean Scream" -- Seashell was right all along 'the fix is in.' Can we go back and investigate the Federal Reserve Board some more? The perception in my head is that it is a sorta public sorta private group that makes more money (as in puts more currency) out there when they deem it necessary. I don't know how accurate my perceptions are at all, but such a group seems very un-American to me -- not beholden to Congress it would seem to me. Maybe there is a Congressional oversight committee for the Fed? We do know they confirm the Fed chairman. I tend to babble late at night. Early in the morning too :~)

Sweet dreams.

12:23 am et

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By Annilow on Mar 6, 2008 12:15 AM EST

PS Is Dogma coming to DemocracyFest (I hope)?

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By Steve*in*Nebraska on Mar 6, 2008 1:07 AM EST

"Fired Up!"

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By Jo*in*Vermont on Mar 6, 2008 12:22 AM EST

here's hoping that Obama denied the SD story because it is now MORE than 50!  and when will we hear about those Feb $$$$$?!  ;)

will Hillary be transparent to the electorate and release her tax papers?  NO, SHE WON'T!

will Hillary play by the same rules as the rest of the dems and admit she hasn't 'won' FL or MI?   NO, SHE WON'T!

will Hillary meet with other world leaders w/o 'pre-conditions'?  NO, SHE WON'T!

will Hillary tell the truth and the whole truth about her ties to lobbyists?  NO, SHE WON'T!

will Hillary put party before personal and keep her campaign 'clean'?  NO, SHE WON'T!

~~ oh, well, dumb idea - lol!  I'm sure there are a hundred other 'NO, SHE WON'T!s' but my brain is shutting down.....  sweet dreams to al!

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By Sitka on Mar 6, 2008 12:30 AM EST

I'm trying to visualize the debate between VP Sibelius and possible vP Charlie Crist. same for Napolitano. Minced meat. Of course Sibelius might win by putting Crist to sleep. Was there supposed to be some political savvy here?

Yeah, that Charlie Crist is a real charisma machine. Don't worry about the VP debate -- nobody watches it. 

Napalitano and Sibelius fulfill the two important requirements I cited. They attract voters who want a woman and put states into play that otherwise won't be.

But instead of simply putting down my suggestions you should put forward your own to counter them.

Hopefully it won't be an old white guy GeritolDem as Alter suggested.

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By Sitka on Mar 6, 2008 12:32 AM EST

 Is the point of the article by Ron Cloud is that if Obama couldn't beat Clinton in NY then he won't be able to beat McCain there either?

When your candidate is already beaten, there are nothing but straws left to clutch at. 

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By audrey.nc on Mar 6, 2008 1:00 AM EST


Sitka...

Well, what you say is true, but what are either of these women going to add when Bush starts another war for Mc?

I have promoted my choice, and it is Howard Dean. Howard has already started taking down Mc. He adds strength and decisiveness that Obama lacks, and so much more. Like i have said I want Dean to be the one a heartbeat away. The most qualified and ready to take over.

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By Steve*in*Nebraska on Mar 6, 2008 2:08 AM EST

New Thread without superior electabilwhatever.

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By puddle on Mar 6, 2008 3:39 AM EST

Superior Electability
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wasn't it this thinking, this mindset, this idiocy that got us the junior senator from Massachusetts, and therefore, four more years of George the Bush? Why duz sum peeple NEVER learn?

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By Phil Specht on Mar 6, 2008 3:32 AM EST

Obama will win the Blue States this a totally bogus argument. and it shows Clinton has never been prepared to contest in all fifity states but has concentrated resources in the electoral college context

Has nothing to do with how Obama would do against McCain in Democratic states(win big)

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